3 real-world scenarios that could take down your agency (in the next 6-months)
Under-the-radar threats that I think agency owners can’t afford to ignore (and what to do now to get ahead of them).
This is issue #004 of ‘Field Notes For the Creative Operator’. Every 2-weeks I share my latest notes on what’s ‘moving the dial’ in growing the agency’s that I work with. That way, you can test the insights out for your own agency growth. Stay up-to-date with future posts →
I’m getting very concerned.
The next six months could punch some real holes in the agency model as we know it.
Let me share three scenarios with you, and explain what they matter, and how you can plan to reduce their impact - and risk - to your agency business.
Here we go!
:-)
1. A Geopolitical Flashpoint (That Hits Your Tech Stack Overnight)
The Scenario:
Imagine this …. The US makes a bold (and bizarre) military move - say, invading Greenland. It sparks global backlash.
NATO countries retaliate economically. Suddenly, anything hosted, built, or backed in the US is under review.
We're already seeing it!
Microsoft recently blocked email access to members of the ICC in Europe, based on sanctions by Trump (relating to Israel). This impedes the day-to-day process of the court communications. (Read the article for the full details - https://tuta.com/blog/digital-sovereignty-europe).
For this, and the general realisation of tech over-reliance - murmurs of digital sovereignty are growing louder.
Restrictions from - and to - US tech firms could happen either ways. Catching businesses totally off-guard.
What’s The Risk?
Most agencies are deeply reliant on US-based services. Think about how you use Microsoft, Google Cloud, AWS, OpenAI, Adobe, even Notion.
If access is suddenly throttled or restricted, entire workflows can collapse.
Communications with clients (or with them and their customer base) can cease, and access to data and content management could affect how you can operate.
What can you do about it?
Map your stack. Do a quick audit of everything you rely on. Where is it hosted? Who owns it?
Diversify suppliers. Identify European or UK-based alternatives now, even if you don’t switch yet.
Data portability. Set up regular backups and export routines for your core tools.
Prep your clients. Some may also rely on these tools. Offer contingency advice - position yourself as the proactive partner. Or, at least prep the communications strategy and content ready to send if tensions get raised.
Other Considerations?
Think contracts. If you’re delivering projects using tech that could be disrupted, get legal eyes on your service agreements.
Add (or update) language around “tech stack disruptions” to manage liability. And consider the cost implications and who/how these will need to be charged.
You might not want to panic your clients ahead of time - but having a plan, knowing the steps, and spotting where impact will affect you all will position you ready to mitigate the impact.
2. The Profit Squeeze: N.I. Hike + Wage Floor ‘Shock’
The Scenario:
With National Insurance going up and the recent rise in minimum wage (especially for junior staff), many UK businesses are waking up to the real cost of employment.
It’s not pretty. Profit margins are evaporating. Decisions on investing with agencies and third party suppliers are being stalled, or pushed back 3-6 months.
What’s The Risk?
When profits get squeezed, the first budgets to go are …. marketing, freelancers, external consultants, new hires.
Expect tighter cashflow. As well as slower project sign-offs. Maybe even talks from clients about longer payment terms (30 days becoming 60+).
What can you do about it?
Scenario planning. Run a quick model on what happens if 30% of your retained revenue disappears. What levers can you pull?
Cashflow discipline. Stop offering long terms where possible. Tighten your invoicing rhythm. Build in late fees or early payment discounts for any new clients (or when updating contract renewals).
Productise your offers. Is there a way to create something smaller, faster, and easier to buy for winning new clients? How can you de-risk the decision for them, ro work around any freeze in hires, or third party retainers?
Push for pre-paid. This can be tough for some services. Can you sell on outcomes or deliverables, not just time. What can you do to get paid before you deliver (where possible).
Other Considerations?
Your own team might be feeling it too - rising costs of living and limited raises. Burnout risk rises as teams try to “do more with less.” Monitor team feedback closely. Are your suppliers needing quicker cashflow that you currently offer?
What if your suppliers require up-front payments when you used to be able to pay monthly?
This change of circumstances can happen either side of your business. Look for warning signs or red flags to indicate who you need to have a conversation with before this takes root.
3. The AI Wave is Eating Your Market Space
The Scenario:
Clients are building in-house AI fluency.
They’re writing their own content. Running their own keyword clustering. Using design generators and building sites with no-code tools.
Every part of the traditional agency offering is being squeezed by AI-powered DIY.
What’s The Risk?
Services like SEO, social content, design, email - are all getting commoditised.
Especially when platforms like Google are introducing AI overviews and increased zero-click answers that kill traditional traffic models.
The value chain is shifting fast. Are you going to be too slow to respond that you’re left out of the market?
What can you do about it?
Shift from execution to navigation. Clients don’t just need outputs - they need clarity, judgment, and smart decision-making. Sell your thinking, not just your doing.
Package advisory + audits. Offer monthly “check-in” or “review” services where you help clients sense-check what they’re doing with AI. Be their tech-savvy partner.
Niche down. Generalist agencies will suffer most. Specialise in outcomes, sectors, or formats where AI is still clumsy or high-risk. Or use your generalist skills to compliment the point above.
Build internal AI fluency. If you’re not experimenting with these tools yourself, you’ll fall behind. Embed AI into your delivery - before your clients realise they can do it themselves. Focus on use, security, connective issues. Use your learning to educate clients.
Other Considerations?
Code, strategy, design - nothing feels safe!
However, context is now your most valuable asset.
Knowing when to use which tool, and why, is where you bring lasting value.
Structuring and connecting these different AI tools to create the right business systems - could be a shift where your expertise adds value to customers, and you stand out from other agencies in your field.
A Final Word From Me ..
I know, none of these risks are guaranteed.
But they are plausible - and getting more real every week (given updates from the USA administration on it’s desire for Greenland’s future to be with them).
The agencies that survive and thrive will be the ones that treat risk planning as a growth asset - not a panic response.
The good news is, you can start this prep work right now.
You don’t need to wait for the storm first.
And having these scenarios considered - like with digital dependency - could open new ways of working for your business. Plus, showing potential clients how you’re ‘future proofing’ their work shows your depth of expertise that other agencies wouldn’t even have considered.
Do the prep work now, and you’ll be better placed than everyone else.
You got this!
Turn your awareness into proactive action …
Reading about existential risks is useful.
But building them into a clear, living system?
That’s what keeps your agency resilient when the unexpected hits!
I’ve put together a short, affordable training product called Risk Management for Agencies. It’s designed specifically for digital, design, and marketing businesses like yours.
In it, you’ll get:
✅ A ready-to-use risk sheet (lean, not corporate)
✅ Short, clear video lessons (under an hour total)
✅ A method to spot, prioritise, and act on risks before they become problems
✅ Real-world context on what to look for next
If you’re running without a risk plan, you’re relying on luck.
This training gives you a smart, simple structure you can apply immediately.
Let’s make the next six months (and beyond) something you’re prepared for - not blindsided by.
Pssst ….. I’ve curated a bunch of useful resources to help your agency grow - check them out here → Visit my resource page